Five years after the pandemic, it feels like we’re back to square one.
Only this time, the existential crisis is triggered not by a strict lockdown but by AI, trade chaos, political uncertainty, and a host of other issues.
I recently picked up John Kay’s Obliquity. It’s a good read.
The core idea? Under complexity and uncertainty, we are better off pursuing our goals indirectly, not head on.
For example, if you chase happiness directly, you usually fail.
You end up fixating on something specific, fleeting or elusive, that often makes you miserable in the long run.
Instead, you’re better off engaging in meaningful activities. Happiness becomes a byproduct and not the target.
Back to AI and trade wars.
Chaos and a general sense of disorientation are the byproducts in this case.
And I am not even talking about AGI here, nor whether or not AI will replace humans.
As with everything else, we’re caught in the middle of a whirlpool.
When the storm subsides, a new equilibrium will probably emerge.
Things will become clearer.
A more immediate kind of uncertainty, and risk, is showing up in tariffs and trade wars.
In both cases, the chaos and ambiguity seem to be driven by people feeling the pressure to act, even when the way forward isn’t clear.
Chaos might be exciting. It’s rarely easy.
Especially when we’re trying to make sense of it all.
This is where I think a philosophical mindset might help… just a lil’ bit.
Maybe we don’t need more direct answers.
Maybe we need a little obliquity: asking better questions, shifting our perspective, and taking our time before rushing to conclusions.
Quote from Obliquity:
“Obliquity is the best approach whenever complex systems evolve in an uncertain environment and whenever the effect of our actions depends on the ways in which others respond to them. There is a role for carrots and sticks, but to rely on carrots and sticks alone is effective only when we employ donkeys and we are sure exactly what we want the donkeys to do. Directness is only appropriate when the environment is stable, objectives are one-dimensional and transparent, and it is possible to determine when and whether goals have been achieved.”